Who's Staying Up?
20th: Hull City, 12 points
Of all the bad teams in the 2016 season, it's only fitting that Hull are at the bottom of the pile. The sad thing is with Hull that they never really stood a chance. They even started well too, with two wins in their first two games. But just one win in the following fifteen, and just five points from a possible thirty-nine (ouch), have left them rooted to the bottom.
Strengths: Robert Snodgrass is a good player. They have a real team spirit and everyone clearly works hard for the cause. Mike Phelan is a great guy. Their home form is pretty solid, and they're unbeaten in three at the KCOM.
Weaknesses: Everywhere. Lowest goals tally in the league and no genuinely good strikers, the second worst defensive record in the league, the lowest goal difference, the joint least points. This is a team whose biggest weaknesses on Whoscored include taking chances, defending set pieces, and preventing opposition creating chances. They've been brutalized by injuries and their squad is threadbare.
Chances of staying up: 2/10, I really like Hull and I'd hate to see them go down, but right now they're in serious, serious trouble and are 1/6 to be relegated for a reason. They simply aren't good enough.
19th: Swansea City, 12 points
Yikes. Sacking Guidolin after 7 games looked like a bad decision and here we are, ten games and just two Premier League wins later and Swansea look in all sorts of trouble. They've only failed to score in three games since Bob Bradley took over, and yet they've picked up points in just four of those games. Whether Swansea have improved at all since Bradley took over is debatable, but what isn't debatable is how much trouble they are in.
Strengths: Some really good players. Gylfi Sigurdsson is a goalscorer, Llorente is a decent player, Leroy Fer looks very good. They've scored enough goals, 20 at this stage of the season isn't terrible, and is more than six other teams.
Weaknesses: Defensively. Oh boy defensively. 37 goals conceded in 17 games speaks for itself. Swansea are a train wreck at the back, having sold Ashley Williams and not bothered to replace him. Just two clean sheets since the opening day, against Watford and Sunderland at home, and they've shipped three or more goals on eight occasions, including four of their last five. They've conceded a staggering fifteen goals in the last month, since their 1-1 draw at Goodison Park. Two central defenders minimum in January or they're KO. I might suggest Brentford's John Egan, who has been one of the Championship's best defenders.
Chances of staying up: 4/10, unlike Hull you could see them shoring it up at the back enough to scramble some crucial results if they sign well in January. But Bob Bradley is going to have perform some miracles, and beg Ronald Koeman to sell them back Ashley Williams.
18th: Sunderland, 14 points
How many times have we been here before? The Sunderland escape act looks magical when it's Big Sam at the helm, but with David Moyes? Eh we'll see. Looked absolutely sunk for so long, but since the start of November they've won four of their last seven games, only losing to Liverpool, Chelsea and um... Swansea. Very sticky run coming up but Bournemouth, Hull and Swansea are three of their last four.
Strengths: Jermain Defoe is a man who can single-handedly keep any team in the Premier League, a genuine goal-scorer which Hull, Swansea, Boro and Burnley do not possess to the same degree. Moreover, their defensive record is pretty average for where they are, and better than most of the teams around them.
Weaknesses: Goals by anyone who isn't Jermain Defoe. Only three players have scored for them this season and Defoe has over half their goals, as well as two assists. Defensively they've only kept two clean sheets. There's a reason they went ten games without a league win and could go ten more at any point.
Chances of staying up: 6/10, Sunderland are experts in somehow staying up despite all odds, and it would be foolish to bet against it again. But on paper they're one of the three worst sides and deserve to be in the bottom three.
17th Crystal Palace, 15 points
The Pards effect strikes again. One point off the drop zone, the worst home record in the division, the lowest points total of any team in any division in 2016, four points from their last ten and a run of six games in a row losing? Damn. Palace were sitting pretty after seven games, having picked up ten points from four games in September, only to lose their next six. When they blow cold they blow very cold and it's going to be a chilly Christmas for Palace. Having sacked Pardew it looks like they're turning to Big Sam to get them out of trouble.
Strengths: Best goalscoring record outside the top five, with Christian Benteke, Wilf Zaha and Andros Townsend guaranteeing that Palace are never short on firepower. Scoring way too many goals to go down, surely? Also they have been unlucky in the sense that every time they've tried to build momentum, as a team all about momentum, they've hit an unwinnable game. Big Sam would be a brilliant appointment.
Weaknesses: Defensively they're a shambles. Cannot defend set pieces, don't have a Premier League standard goalkeeper, the back four has zero protection. They shouldn't be conceding as many goals as they are, both on paper and in terms of acceptability. Only Hull and Swansea have worse defences.
Chances of staying up: 7/10, only one point from the drop zone and with a relegation level defence, Palace need to either improve their record at the back or keep scoring goals. It doesn't matter if you put four past Swansea if you concede five. But they're in better shape than Hull and Swansea, and Big Sam should be able to work his magic.
16th: Burnley, 17 points
The quintessential home and away team. The worst away record in the league with one point from eight games, but have won over half their games at Turf Moor and unfortunate to lose two games to the top four at home. On paper they're in serious trouble but everything is skewed through the home and away filter. Will their home form be enough, or will they need to pick some points up on the road?
Strengths: Home form. Obviously. Conceded just ten goals of the twenty-eight they've shipped at home and scored 88% of their goals at Turf Moor. They look a very tough nut to crack when they're playing well.
Weaknesses: Eighteen goals shipped in eight games away from home, scoring just twice in the process. Simply put, they're not going to survive with one point away from home. Other teams around them will improve and they have to to.
Chances of staying up: 5/10, they probably won't score as many goals as Sunderland or Palace, which means that they're reliant on their defence and their home form. If it's a question of whether their home form will dip before their away form improves, my money is on the former and then they'll be in real trouble. Palace and Sunderland are experienced in relegation battles, Burnley are experienced in getting relegated.
15th Leicester City, 17 points
Blimey, what happened here? The Champions of England have suffered some humiliating defeats away from the King Power Stadium, where they've only lost once this season. Just one win in their last eight games has seen them slide horribly towards the drop, and their focus on their Champions League campaign has underlined their lack of depth.
Strengths: Plenty of goalscorers and quality players in this team. Mahrez, Vardy, Slimani, Okazaki, Leicester should have more than enough firepower to stay afloat. Very very good at home and more to come from them away from the King Power.
Weaknesses: Real lack of depth in midfield, where they look horribly short. Defensively shambolic away from home at times and set piece defending has been laughably bad. Conceded as many as Hull and Swansea away from home, where they've picked up just two points.
Chances of staying up: 7/10, realistically Leicester have got the strength to keep themselves in the Premier League and when they get knocked out of the Champions League they can focus on staying up, so their lack of depth and focus becomes less of an issue.
14th Middlesbrough, 18 points
Boro have been reasonably consistent this season, picking up points at reasonably regular intervals and have never lost more than three in a row. More importantly, they've rarely lost to teams in and around them, with Palace the only side below them in the table to beat them so far this season. They've beaten all of the bottom three, which is always a good sign.
Strengths: Comfortably the best defence in the bottom half of the table and conceded almost half as many as Hull and Swansea. They're a tough team to beat and have only conceded three goals on two occasions, and only lost by three goals once. At home they're a very tough nut to crack, and Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City managed just two goals between them against Boro.
Weaknesses: Scoring goals has been a problem, with Alvaro Negredo proving hit and miss, and only Gaston Ramirez providing suitable goalscoring support from midfield. Jordan Rhodes has been underutilised, Adama Traore has no end product and Boro very rarely look like winning comfortably.
Chances of staying up, 7/10, teams with a good defence very rarely go down, and Boro are not going to be slapped about by anybody this season, with only a full throttle Liverpool side beating them easily. Moreover, they've consistently beaten teams in and around them, which is how you stay in the Premier League.
I could be cruel and analyse West Ham's survival chances for fun, as they're only five points clear of Sunderland, but realistically West Ham aren't going down and it would be slightly mean-spirited, although I might rethink that assessment if they lose to Leicester and Swansea in their next two away games.
So without further ado, here is my predicted bottom seven.
14. Leicester City
15. Crystal Palace
16. Middlesbrough
16. Middlesbrough
17. Sunderland
18. Burnley
19. Swansea
20. Hull
Although I think it's very tight between Sunderland, Palace and Burnley right now, who I think will be the three teams grappling for two spots. But with Big Sam at the helm I think Palace should be okay, I think Boro and Leicester should be fine, and Swansea and Hull will do well to stay in the fight until April.
The Hard and Fast Section
- Pards out. Big Sam in. All change.
- West Brom aiming to hijack Everton's Schneiderlin transfer. Bidding war.
- Oscar to China for £60m confirmed. Bonkers.
- Welbeck back in training. Good news.
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