Title Race Assessment (bonus Champions League chances)
1. Chelsea, 43 points
Chelsea sit atop the pile after 17 games, with a seriously impressive record, having won 14 of those games and lost just two. It's been a terrific season for Chelsea so far, and they've now won eleven games in a row since Liverpool and Arsenal both beat them back to back. Their season really exploded into life with their 4-0 demolition job over Man United and since then both Spurs and City have fallen to the Chelsea juggernaut.
Strengths: Defensively, Chelsea have been rock solid and conceded two goals in eleven games. That is frightening. Conte's system is working to perfection, and it gets the most out of all of their players. Diego Costa and Eden Hazard are two exceptional players near the top of their game right now. They're getting very good at grinding out results with three 1-0 wins in a row.
Weaknesses: Their main weakness is their reliance on Costa and Hazard, and it'll be interesting to see what happens if either of them picks up a serious injury. The main flaw in their starting eleven is their wingbacks, who are crucial to the system but can be exploited with pace in-behind. They're getting results at the moment but they're not outplaying teams either.
Title chances: 9/10, Chelsea are the clear and rightful favourites, six points clear and looking imperious right now. Going to take something special to stop them.
Top four chances: 10/10, Chelsea are ten points clear of 5th place Spurs. All but guaranteed.
2. Liverpool, 37 points
Second place at Christmas with their highest points total since the 08/09 title challenge, when this time last season they were 9th. It's been a terrific year for Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp. Their last minute winner in the Merseyside Derby keeps them hot on Chelsea's heels and after a succession of really impressive results in the big games, Liverpool have stumbled slightly since the international break against lesser opposition.
Strengths: Firepower. The league's top scorers with 41 goals evenly distributed with Mane, Lallana, Coutinho, Firmino and Milner all chipping in with at least five goals each. This is the Liverpool team that went to the Emirates and scored four, that put six past Watford, that threatened to run riot at the Bridge. This team turns up for the big games and hasn't lost to a team in the top six, with two wins and two draws representing the best record against the top six of any side. Coped well with injuries.
Weaknesses: Failed to score in three games, which is more than Chelsea, City or Arsenal. Main problem comes defensively, where overall Liverpool have been okay, but without Joel Matip have been prone to complete implosion, which after weeks of debate, finally cost them points, 5 of them, against Bournemouth and West Ham.
Title chances: 7/10, still very much in the race if anyone is and Chelsea's closest contenders but it looks a tough ask to chase them down and you wonder if this side can go the distance.
Top four chances: 8/10, four clear of Spurs and if they play like they have so far then top four is very very make-able.
3. Man City, 36 points
Pep Guardiola's Man City were not supposed to be seven points away from the league leaders on Christmas Day. But back to back defeats to Chelsea and Leicester have derailed their title charge, which looked over as Arsenal went 1-0 up at the Etihad. But City are still in the hunt and made the best start to the season of any team. If they can finish strongly this isn't over.
Strengths: Attacking and attacking midfield talent and bags of it. The best striker in the division in Aguero, two of the best attacking midfielders in Silva and De Bruyne, plenty of terrific wingers in Sterling, Nolito and Sane. On paper, City have one of the best squads if not the best squad in the league and their manager is putting his teams together in inventive and brilliant tactical ways.
Weaknesses: Defensively. It's one thing to say Liverpool's defence will cost them, but City have already dropped significantly more points than Liverpool through defensive errors as Leicester, Spurs and Chelsea ran through them like a knife through butter. Three clean sheets in 7 games is the worst record in the top six.
Title chances: 7/10, you'd still say City are the favourites to make a run at Chelsea and if anything happens to the Blues you'd expect Pep's men to take advantage, but it's a tough ask right now.
Top four chances: 7/10, only three points clear of Spurs with a tough run coming up, they could be out of the top four by the New Year. You'd still expect them to come through but even so.
4. Arsenal, 34 points
There's something very cathartic about seeing Arsenal in their spiritual home. Two complete bottle jobs in a week have seen the Gunners slip from 2nd to 4th as all of their rivals picked up six points on them. Sunday's defeat at the Eithad feels huge, and they're struggling to muster a title race now, just when things were looking promising.
Strengths: A reasonably strong defence and one of the most creative and dangerous front lines, as well as an all-round impressive midfield. Arsenal have managed to shore up the major holes in their squad and on paper look the most balanced and complete team. Scoring plenty of goals. Alexis Sanchez.
Weaknesses: Still lacking in a bit of defensive depth. Without Mustafi they've looked incredibly vulnerable at the back. Their defensive midfield area still looks shaky, with Coquelin and Elneny not the answer and Xhaka yet to convince. Main weakness is their mental strength, which as usual, looks completely shot.
Title chances: 5/10, nine points off, plus the Arsenal factor, means that it's looking like a real long shot now. Major January work needed.
Top four chances: 7/10, Arsenal don't not finish in the top four, even if a 4th place finish wouldn't be their preference. Still, it would be unfair to count out Spurs yet, and the Gunners still have a lot of work to do.
5. Tottenham, 33 points
Spurs have struggled to get their attack going this season, but are starting to make inroads with Harry Kane back and Christian Eriksen firing. Have looked like real top four contenders for most of the season, but haven't ever quite exploded, with too many scattered draws and now their first two defeats of the season, with a wretched showing against United following defeat at the Bridge.
Strengths; Brilliant defence, and their first choice back is the league's best, shielded by top players. Even if they're drawing too many games, they're not losing games to teams that they should be beating. Strong basis to rely on and now that they have attacking players back, they've got a very strong attacking line too.
Weaknesses: Lack of depth. Missing Kane for a couple of months effectively neutered them, and without Alderweireld at the back they looked a shadow of themselves. Even at their best this season they've struggled against the big teams, with their terrific win over Man City their only top performance against the top six.
Title chances: 3/10, it would be absolutely incredible if Spurs were able to come back from 10 points down to beat Chelsea, given that there are four superior teams ahead of them right now.
Top four chances: 6/10, with only one point separating the two North London clubs, it would be unfair to suggest that Spurs don't have a solid chance of making the top four, even if inevitably we all know that St Totteringham's Day will come.
6. Man United, 30 points
In Jose Mourinho's defence, 30 points would have got United into the top four at this stage last season. But the painful truth is United have not improved significantly and at the moment are struggling. Eight games unbeaten since their humiliation at the Bridge represents improvement, as does three wins in a row, but there's always a sense that something will go wrong.
Strengths: Extremely talented first choice midfield, with Pogba, Herrera, Carrick, Mkhitaryan and Mata all playing well this season. Zlatan has performed well overall. They look reasonably solid defensively too, and have a pretty good defensive record.
Weaknesses: Goals. They are heavily reliant on Ibrahimovic to score, as their second top scorer has scored just three, easily the lowest in the top six, and they've scored more than 10 less than the entire top four. Also massive reliance on Carrick in midfield and a lack of depth in every area of the pitch except attacking midfield.
Title chances: 1/10, not even close to in the title race. 13 points worse off and looking far inferior to Chelsea, not to mention Liverpool, City and Arsenal.
Top four chances: 4/10, United's top four chances could briefly improve as they have a nice run over the Christmas period, but ultimately they're not on the same level as the top four right now and have a lot of ground to make up.
Predicted final top six:
1. Chelsea
2. Man City
3. Liverpool
4. Arsenal
5. United
6. Spurs
I can't wait to see how wrong I'm proven, given that in the summer I predicted City to win the title and Chelsea to not make the top four. But hey, I also predicted three of the current top four including us to do well, so...
The Hard and Fast Section
- Cook captains ICC Team of the Year. Irony.
- Kvitova facing six months out after being attacked. Shocking.
- Dylan Hartley "let team down" - Eddie Jones. Agreed.
- Bayern thrashed Leipzig to move clear in Bundesliga. Naturally.
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