Stamina vs Form
It took Novak Djokovic less than an hour and a half to sweep past a crippled Jo Wilfried Tsonga on Tuesday night, as Tsonga retired with a knee injury shortly after Djokovic moved 6-3 6-2 in front. For Tsonga, it was devastating, but it gave Djokovic yet another rest in a tournament which for him has been extremely easy up until now. His longest and hardest match so far was his opening round, in which he won in four sets and just over two and a half hours against Jerzy Janowicz. Since then, Djokovic has completed just one match, and spent less than four hours on court, as Jiri Vesely withdrew with an injury before even getting on court, Mikhail Youhnzy in the third round scarcely lasted longer than that, and fourth round opponent Kyle Edmund really proved no threat to Djokovic, and was swept aside in less than two hours.
For Djokovic, this is almost the ideal scenario. Coming in nursing knocks to his wrist and elbow, putting as little strain as possible on his arms to reach the semi-final will have benefited him hugely, and it's unlikely that Frenchman Gael Monfils will offer him much trouble, despite not having dropped a set yet in this Championship. So for a man who has had some injury troubles, and been knocked out by lesser seeds in early stages of recent tournaments, this has been a good Championship so far.
On the other side of the draw, Andy Murray will have done his own stamina no harm, following a 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 thumping of Dimitrov. Indeed, Murray has only dropped one set in the whole tournament so far, winning three of his four matches up to this point in straight sets. And certainly, although he will not be as rested as Djokovic, he has done very well up until this point, to avoid any long and grueling matches, although his match with Lorenzi threatened to be at one point.
But whilst Djokovic has one match more until he plays in the final, Murray still has two much harder games to navigate, first against the dangerous Kei Nishikori, who Murray recently neutered in the Olympics, and then against either Del Potro, who gave Murray a very hard match in the final of the Olympics, or Stan Wawrinka, who hasn't looked at his best this tournament, particularly when Dan Evans gave him the run around.
The truth is that either of Murray's semi-final opponents should give him a great match, and whilst there's a solid chance that Djokovic will only play three more sets before he plays in Sunday's final, whoever faces him, be it Murray, Nishikori, Wawrinka or Del Potro, will surely face two tough matches between now and then. I would be very surprised if whoever made it through did it in less than seven sets, and even that is being generous, when eight or nine seems a real possibility.
So Djokovic will certainly have the advantage of stamina over his opponent in the final, assuming that his two niggling injuries aren't even remotely serious. And certainly, Murray, Nishikori and Del Potro in particular made real runs at the Olympics, and Del Potro looked like he physically ran short in that final. Murray, for example, has reached the final of every major tournament this year, his last seven tournaments and, crucially, this would be his third final in a little over a month. It has got to start taking its toll.
But then there's the other side of the argument. Following his early exits from Wimbledon and the Olympics, Djokovic doesn't have a lot of high profile tennis under his belt since beating Murray in the French Open final. His form, as a result, has to be a major concern. His four hours on court will not have got him anywhere near the standard required to beat Murray for example, who has been in red hot form this year, on the back of his Wimbledon and Olympic titles.
So that is the crux of the problem. If it comes down to a Murray vs Djokovic final, and there is a lot of tennis to be played before we can even make that assumption, which one will find themselves in a better position? Will Novak's improved stamina and ability to rest leave him with more in the tank against a player who has played a lot of difficult, high intensity tennis over the last month or two, and still has two more tough matches to navigate? Or will Andy's superior form, honed by having to be at the very top of his game for a solid two months, see him turn the tables on Djokovic?
Either way, it's going to be fascinating to find out.
The Hard and Fast Section
- Rashford scored an U-21 hat-trick. Yikes.
- Fury v Klitschko rematch confirmed. Tasty.
- Gatland named head of Lions in 2017. Smart.
- Ecclestone on for three more years. Blimey.
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