Jose's Conundrum
Manchester United are in trouble. It might seem reactionary to suggest this now, when things were looking incredibly rosy as they won their opening three games, but so far they've only played well in one of their five league games this season. And it has to be said that it does sound as if they were excellent against Southampton, but against Bournemouth they laboured until Bournemouth made critical defensive errors and they really, really struggling to break down Hull. All that can be said from those games is that Man United are a better side than Bournemouth and Hull, hardly something to put on Jose Mourinho's CV.
The truth is that this United side have some real problems. The balance of their midfield is dreadful, they're utilizing the wrong formation, they're heavily reliant on two or three players and defensively, Eric Bailly is looking less and less like a game-changing addition to their central defence.
But none of these problems are critical problems. United have as solid a defence as almost anyone in the league, the balance of their midfield is fixable with a tweak to the right formation and in an attacking sense, the players that United are leaning on at the moment will gain support from a better formation and are more than capable of playing well enough in their own right to carry United through most games. If United can fix these problems, they should easily make top four, although not necessarily challenge for the title. After all, all of the top teams apart from possibly Man City have major issues bubbling just under the surface.
But United's biggest problem, indeed their serious problem is highlighted by one stat. One simple stat that shows why they are nowhere near Man City at the moment. They have run just 526.6km so far this season. Of course that stat in isolation means nothing so to provide some context: that's the worst in the Premier League. Not a single team has run less in the division than Man United. Sunderland, the next worst, have run 526.7km. At the other end of the scales, the top three: Liverpool, City and Spurs have run 581.6km, 570.7km and 565.9km respectively. And it's no coincidence that three of the league's most impressive teams so far have done a lot of running.
Of course, this is just one stat that in isolation is meaningless, and certainly doesn't directly affect results. But you can already see the evidence that this stat is causing United serious problems. Against the likes of Hull City and Bournemouth, this is not necessarily a problem, as I've already mentioned with regards to Chelsea. If you're controlling the game then you don't need to do as much running against sides that don't press you and defend deep. However, even in those games, United's lack of penetration for large periods of both games can directly be attributed to their lack of movement; their lack of pace; their lack of intensity.
Against a team like Manchester City, one of the most energetic sides in the Premier League, such a deficiency is fatal. Just as Chelsea were outran by Liverpool, Man United were run off the ball by Man City. Last weekend, this was highlighted as a problem, but the full extent of that problem wasn't properly exposed until United played Watford. And then Watford did the same thing. It's one thing to be overran and have less intensity than one of the most intense, hard-working and energetic sides out there, it's another to have it happen against Watford - who are only 15th in the running league table.
The biggest problem in United's side is a lack of energy, a lack of real intensity. They do not know how to press, and they will always struggle against teams who can press well. They're lethargic in possession, they don't run as much off the ball and as a result they're always going to struggle when a good energetic team comes up against them. Of course, running isn't everything, just look at the team fourth in the running table: Burnley, but the evidence strongly correlates between energy and league position. City, Spurs and Liverpool are at the top, Arsenal are not far behind in 6th, whereas teams like Stoke, Hull, Palace and Sunderland are all near the bottom.
So how do United solve this problem? Well this draws back to their other main problem against Watford: their midfield. When you have a player like Zlatan Ibrahimovic up front, who you know will score you goals but is unlikely to press high and unlikely to work overly hard, you need your midfield to pick up the slack. And who do United have in midfield? Wayne Rooney, Marouane Fellaini and Paul Pogba, with wing options including Mkhitaryan, Mata and the overly energetic Marcus Rashford.
Rashford of course, is a high energy player, as is Paul Pogba and exactly the sort of players that you'd want playing. But you cannot simply throw in one or two energetic players and expect them to rejuvenate the team. That hasn't worked at Chelsea, who tried the exact same thing with Kante in the summer, and it hasn't worked at United. You look at the top teams in this list. At Liverpool, everyone presses. Their midfield trio of Lallana, Wijnaldum and Henderson contains three incredibly energetic players. Roberto Firmino is the first name on the team sheet because he is the highest presser. At Man City, Nolito and Sterling run and run and run, Kevin De Bruyne is a fantastic player but also an energetic one. And at Spurs: Lamela, Dele Alli, Dembele, they are all about energy and intensity. United cannot simply throw Pogba into a midfield containing two of the least energetic players in the league in Rooney and Fellaini and expect rewards.
I am not of course, suggesting that you need a team that plays the pressing game well or plays the style that those top three sides play in order to win the league. Man City aren't title favourites because of their energy, but because of their quality. But the amount of static in Man United's midfield is killing them. Against Watford, Fellaini was all over the place, his lack of movement meant that Watford were able to run past him with ease, leading to two of the three goals. Mourinho himself blamed a lack of pressing and running from Luke Shaw on the second goal. And although the third goal was the result of a shocking individual error from Eric Bailly, it nevertheless highlighted Fellaini's deficiencies as a defensive midfielder.
When you look at United's midfield, Fellaini has to be dropped. He doesn't have the energy to cope in big games, he's a walking yellow card and as he demonstrated against Watford, he doesn't have the defensive nous to protect a back four. The other man in danger of losing his place in United's midfield is Rooney.
The funny thing about Wayne Rooney is that everyone acts as if he's a unique case. He's not, and the only reason we think he is is that everyone, including his own managers, keep acting as though he is. Rooney is a very good player, that is not up for debate. But any other good player at any other big club would have been dropped by now. Being a good player does not give you free reign to be undroppable. The only players who I would say cannot be dropped are players who are either among the best in the league in their position (see Aguero/Kane etc) or who are so far above the rest of their options at the same team that dropping them would be suicide (see Lukaku or Defoe). Rooney fits into neither of these categories. He's not one of the elite CAMs in the division, like Ozil, Silva or De Bruyne and to suggest that he's miles better than his competition at United would 1) raise serious questions considering United want to win the league and 2) would be an insult to Mata and Mkhitaryan, not to mention the £89m player United have just signed.
Rooney was awful against Watford. He was awful against Man City. The plain truth is that Rooney is a very very good player but he is not a high energy, high intensity player, which means in games where players put the press on him, or where he needs to put the press on, he is found wanting. It would be folly to suggest Rooney doesn't have a future at United, but right now he needs to be dropped. He's doing the same thing for United that he's been doing for England, he is a slow, low energy player who produces moments of individual quality but drags down the tempo and intensity of the rest of the team around him.
The best analogy I can make to the Rooney situation is Yaya Toure at Man City. In his prime, even a couple of years ago, Toure was the crucial lynchpin in Man City's side, playing very well and capable of being both a game-changer and a match-winner at his best. But Pep Guardiola came straight in, saw that Toure was not mobile enough and he's gone. Ceased to be as a force at City. Despite his obvious talent, he didn't fit with what Pep was trying to do.
But as I've hinted at already, Rooney isn't the main problem. In fact no individuals are the main problem, they're all just symptoms. A team as good as Manchester United doesn't need to be completely high energy, it doesn't need to necessarily match the energy of those top three teams. It can afford to carry a player like Wayne Rooney based on his technical ability. It can afford to carry a player like Juan Mata based on his technical ability, or Marouane Fellaini, or Zlatan Ibrahimovic. But suddenly, you put four low energy players in the front six of your team and then who is doing the carrying? Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba.
Of course, the problems run deeper than that. We saw against Feyenoord that throwing Herrera, Schneiderlin into defensive midfield and pushing Pogba up to the CAM position isn't an instant fix. Because Paul Pogba isn't a CAM any more than he's a CDM. United don't even need to drastically change their formation, they just need to change the balance of their midfield.
The other facet to this problem is a lack of players in place to construct a plan. United don't have the players to counter-attack and press high, so they need to control the tempo of the game, yet Fellaini and Rooney are not players who can control a game, and even then, they need some more movement and creativity in the attacking areas. If they're content with playing a low energy midfield, then that midfield has to at least serve a purpose, and it's not clear that it does.
Man United's midfield essentially needs a complete tactical and personnel overhaul. Fellaini should be dropped for someone who can actually defend, they need to switch to something resembling a 4-3-3 to free up Pogba without shunting him into the CAM position, and then they need a creative force beside him, preferably someone like Mata or Mkhitaryan who may not be quite as high energy but is certainly more creative than Rooney. Rooney has been non-existent as a creative force in United's last few weeks.
Another suggestion that I'm not wholly opposed to was switching to a 3-5-2, with Shaw and Valencia as wing backs, a three man midfield and then freeing up Rashford and Ibrahimovic to go up top. The main problem with this is the idea that United can play Smalling, Bailly and Blind all together in central defence, especially when their main cover is Marcus Rojo.
Frankly I'm baffled that Michael Carrick, Ander Herrera and Morgan Schneiderlin are continuously being overlooked. In any case, Morgan Schneiderlin for me is the answer. He thrived under Pochettino, who as we know is one of the best high energy managers in the Premier League, and there's no doubt for me that he would thrive under Mourinho. If only United will give him the chance. If Marouane Fellaini is Manchester United's best central defensive midfield option then it looks like Mourinho would have been better off spending another £100m+ in the transfer market.
And Mourinho is certainly the man who deserves the majority of the blame. It's impossible to isolate one or key individuals who have been poor for United in the last week or so, because so many players have failed to turn up. Pogba and Rooney in particular have been getting a lot of stick, not all of it deserved, when in truth Mourinho is the one failing to get the best out of his players. If he persists with this current formation and current midfield trio, it doesn't matter how much he tweaks his wingers or central defenders, United are not going to win the title. At this rate, they might not even make top four.
The Hard and Fast Section
- Middlesex struggling against Yorkshire at 90-3.
- Somerset also not off to a flier - 101/2.
- Spurs refusing to outline Kane's return. Worrying.
- Oh Joey Barton. You complete and utter mess.
- What is going on with Lewis Hamilton?
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