Friday, 21 April 2017

21st April 17

FA Cup semi-finals weekend, plus the normal Premier League preview.


FA CUP


Chelsea v Spurs (5:15pm Saturday)

The two remaining title contenders face-off in one of the most hotly anticipated FA Cup semi-finals in recent memory. Aside from the title-race, there's so much underlying this one; Chelsea being the ones to kill Spurs' title challenge last year; the last time Spurs won a trophy they beat Chelsea in the final; the last time Spurs reached a cup final they lost to Chelsea; and of course the general underlying ill-feeling between these two teams. But above all else, this is a game between the best two teams in the Premier League, which is what makes it exciting. Both teams will be slightly weakened by injuries, but both remain hugely evenly matched. On balance, this is a really tough one to call. If Spurs turn up and play the football that they've been playing in recent weeks, as they're in better form than their opponents, then they should win, as evidenced by their 2-0 win in January. However, Spurs are also far more likely to choke on the big occasion than their opposition, and Chelsea's experience in these sorts of games may just see them through. 

Prediction: 2-0 Chelsea

Arsenal v Man City (3pm Sunday)

These two sides met just three weeks ago, playing out an exciting 2-2 draw that left both sets of fans slightly dissatisfied. But only one team can through in this one, and on balance you have to fancy City. Arsenal are in really poor form at the moment, having won just three of their last nine games, whilst City's only defeat in the league since January has come against Chelsea. However, the fact that it's a cup semi-final could rejuvenate Arsenal, and be the catalyst for a strong finish to the season. Nevertheless, with both teams underachieving this season, they both need to be winning this game. 

Prediction: 2-1 City


Premier League


Bournemouth v Middlesbrough (3pm Saturday)

Boro are in pretty dire straits. Six points from safety with eighteen more points available, this is as close to must-win as it gets, especially against a Bournemouth side sat 16th with just 35 points themselves this season (a tally which should be more than enough to prevent them being dragged into the dogfight as it stands). Nevertheless, it's hard to look at this game as one that Boro are likely to win. Bournemouth have had a really sticky patch of fixtures, having picked up three points from games against Saints, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and Man United in recent weeks. But crucially, their home wins against West Ham and Swansea indicate that they should have enough in the tank to see off a Boro side who are now 15 league games without a win. Maybe a 0-0, probably a home win. 

Prediction: 2-0 Bournemouth

Hull v Watford (3pm) 

Speaking of must-win games, Hull are hanging on by a thread. Swansea's failure to win in their last six games has given the Tigers hope, but sooner or later the Swans are going to pull out of their tailspin and Hull are just two points better off than their relegation rivals. Against a Watford who haven't picked up an away win since January, they'll get a really good chance to improve on their already excellent home form under Marco Silva. I'm backing them to get that win. 

Prediction: 2-1 Hull 

Swansea v Stoke (3pm)

It's almost a given at this stage of the season that every team fighting for the title, top four, or to stay in the Premier League has every game as a must-win, but Swansea's need for a victory is reaching desperate levels. One point from six games has seen them slide back into the relegation zone and a home game against a Stoke side who have one point from their last five away games is a great opportunity to notch their first win since the start of March. But Stoke won't make it easy for them either, and this could be close. In their current form, I'm not sure Swansea will be able to make it over the line. 

Prediction: 1-1

West Ham v Everton (3pm)

Four points from their last two games have stopped the rot for a West Ham side that looked like they might be sliding towards relegation themselves having picked up just two points from the seven preceding games. Everton meanwhile, have been maintaining a really good run of form, with only their form against the big teams costing them a chance to finish in the top four. Nevertheless, Everton are another team with patchy away form, so this would be an impressive win if they could pull it off. 

Prediction: 3-1 Everton 

Burnley v Man United (2:15pm Sunday)

United's prioritization of the Europa League, which has resulted in them reaching the semi-finals of that competition, could cost them again here, as they play Burnley less than 72 hours after a gruelling 120 minutes against Anderlecht, that saw Rashford, Carrick and Mkhitaryan play all 120 minutes, and Ibrahimovic and Rojo both pick up injuries. That, coupled with United's general struggles in front of goal, and Burnley's phenomenal home form, means that I think this one will be a draw. 

Prediction: 1-1/0-0

Liverpool v Crystal Palace (4:30pm)

Goalfest is the word that jumps to mind, based on the current state of both team's defences. Palace are without Mamadou Sakho, Patrick Van Aanholt and Scott Dann, whilst Liverpool could potentially be short Joel Matip, Ragnar Klavan and Lucas Leiva, on top of injuries to Lallana, Henderson and Mane. Whether these injuries will have a massive impact remains to be seen, but Liverpool will still fancy their chances of causing problems to a Palace defence that has leaned heavily on Sakho in recent weeks. Overall, with Palace nearly safe now, Liverpool will be favourites for this one, especially at Anfield. 

Prediction: 2-1 LFC


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