20. Middlesbrough
Boro look sunk without a trace at the moment, simply because they cannot score enough goals. Whilst defensively they've not been terrible, every game they play it looks like their only chance of getting a result is through 0-0, and they've not won a Premier League game in 2017. Will sacking Karanka be enough to keep them up? Probably not.
19. Sunderland
I think Sunderland will get a couple of wins under their belt between now and the end of the season, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. They're seven points from safety, with some difficult games to come and plenty of teams above them in decent form. It would take an absolute miracle for Sunderland to stay up and whilst they've somehow managed it before, they've still not sacked David Moyes and until they do that, they have very little hope of staying up.
18. Hull City
The final relegation spot was a hard one to pin down, but on balance, I think Hull are probably the team in the most trouble. Although their home form is solid under Marco Silva, they simply aren't picking up points away from home and they're three points from safety with teams above them in better form and with games in hand. I think they've just left themselves too much to do.
17. Crystal Palace
The major thing working against Palace is their fixture list. They have to play all of the top six and travel to Southampton in their last ten games, putting the pressure on home games against Leicester, Burnley and Hull. However, you'd just about back Palace to survive, as seven points from those three games should be enough to keep them up, and they're in good form, having won their last three games against Boro, West Brom and Watford.
16. Swansea City
Swansea are another team whose away form has slumped recently after making a great recovery under Paul Clement. Nevertheless, of the teams in the bottom five, Swansea are in the best position to stay up, and I'd be surprised if they went down from here, especially as their fixture list isn't that bad, and they have two really class players in Llorente and Sigurdsson.
15. Watford
Much like last season, I expect Watford to slump now that Premier League survival is secure. No wins in four games suggests that that slump has already begun, and Watford have hardly had a stellar season with a pretty average squad. Nevertheless, they've kept their heads clear of the drop zone and in a second season, that's an achievement and I expect them to be back in 17/18.
14. Burnley
Burnley are another team sliding with 0 wins in six games. Nevertheless, their excellent home form should be enough to keep them well clear of trouble in the remaining ten games. Whilst they may well continue to slide, there are too many teams below them struggling for Burnley to seriously fall away, especially as they have some good players at their disposal and they've only got two games against the top six left, both at Turf Moor.
13. Bournemouth
Much like Watford, Bournemouth are a club who in their second season in the Premier League, have done well to stay out of trouble, and will probably finish in the lower end of the mid-table bracket, which in itself would be an achievement and maybe even a slight improvement on last season. Two vital back to back wins have lifted them clear of any sniff of trouble, but I doubt they'll be able to maintain their current form and make a top half finish.
12. Leicester City
Since sacking Claudio Ranieri, Leicester have won three straight league games, propelling them up the table. And with the players seemingly rejuvenated by the removal of Ranieri, there's no reason to suspect that Leicester's form is going to dip any time soon, and with only three points separating them in 15th to Southampton in 10th, I expect them to climb the table.
11. West Ham United
West Ham are another team suffering from a slump in form, with just one win in their last seven games. However, they've got plenty of talent in their team and look reasonably secure in mid-table, and I don't expect them to do much yoyo-ing between now and the end of the season, so they'll be somewhere between 10th and 13th, with 11th I think their most likely finishing point. They could slump if they go on their holidays early but so will most teams in the mid-table region.
10. Southampton
Saints are an interesting one, as they have been all season. They've been scoring for fun in recent weeks as their mostly solid defence has capitulated since Christmas with the selling of Jose Fonte and injury to Virgil Van Dijk. As such, I think Saints are one of the teams that will keep fighting until the very end and are very good at home. They're three points behind Stoke and level with teams below them, but have games in hand on their opposition. I think they'll end up finishing where they are now, give or take one place.
9. Stoke City
And lo' Stoke finished 9th for the 4th season in a row. And so it was written.
8th. West Bromwich Albion
Seven points clear of Stoke, seven points behind Everton. They're not catching Everton, but it's unlikely that they'll be caught. West Brom have been excellent at beating teams outside the top seven this season, so chances are they'll rack up enough points to stay clear of Stoke and Saints behind them.
7th Everton
Whilst Everton aren't going to finish lower than 7th, it'll be interesting to see whether they can bridge the gap and penetrate the top six. Personally, I think both Arsenal and Man United will be able to keep them at bay, and whilst Everton's remaining fixtures against the top teams may work in their favour, it's more likely that it'll backfire and end up costing them points.
6th Man United
Of the top teams, United have the toughest set of fixtures left. I can't see them winning at the Etihad or White Hart Lane, or beating Chelsea at Old Trafford. Even games at the Emirates and against Everton won't be easy and United's record against the fellow top teams, especially away from home, isn't great. That, plus injuries and suspensions, means that they'll probably finish lowest of the top sides.
5th Arsenal
Like United, Arsenal's fixtures are particularly nasty, and they're in the worst form of the top six. I think that they'll recover somewhat, and with Alexis Sanchez in their team they're always in with a chance of winning any game. Both Manchester clubs have to go to the Emirates, which gives Arsenal a slight edge, but they've got too much ground to make up on the top four to make it.
4th Liverpool
Liverpool are in the driving seat for Champions League right now, with the nicest set of fixtures, with no more games against the top six, and points on the board. Their form is a mixed bag right now, but they should have enough in the tank to get over the line, especially as they've had an excellent season at Anfield, as the rest of the contenders will all take points off each other.
3rd Tottenham
Currently sitting in second with a seven point advantage over Man United and home advantage in their big fixtures to come, Spurs are in a very good position, and are the favourites to hold on to top four football. Barring a huge implosion, Spurs won't finish outside the top four, but I think that they'll drop enough points to lose ground against Man City.
2. Man City
Aside from Chelsea, City are the form team in the league right now, with four wins in their last six and draws against their biggest rivals in Liverpool and Spurs. On paper you'd back them to beat both Arsenal and Man United, given their superior firepower, and from here, City are probably the least likely to drop points of the five contenders for the remaining three spots.
1. Chelsea
Off over the hills and far away. Chelsea are ten points clear with ten games to go, needing just seven wins to secure the Premier League title. They can afford to lose to both Manchester clubs and Everton and still canter to a victory, and frankly they're simply not going to get caught at this stage. Antonio Conte's side are almost certainly going to win and they will be worthy title winners.
The Hard and Fast Section
- Vettel takes first race of the season. Lewis second.
- Leicester edge out Saints in immense game of rugby.
- England face Lithuania today off back of Germany loss.
- Horror injury for Coleman mars Wales/Republic draw.
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