GROUP D
Croatia
Croatia are very much shaping up to be the surprise package of this tournament. A terrific win against Spain despite missing one or two key individuals meant that they secured the crucial position on the top of Group D to secure a last 16 game with Portugal and a spot in the easier half of the draw. And what a result it was, without key man Luka Modric in the midfield, and with Kalinic starting ahead of Mandzukic up top, for Croatia to nick the crucial winning goal. What's more, the decision to play Kalinic absolutely paid off, as he scored one and created one more.
I cannot rate Croatia highly enough so far. They have a genuinely world class midfield with Modric, Rakitic and Perisic needing no introduction, and they've all been excellent at this stage. But the underrated Brozovic and Badelj have both been absolutely terrific as well and Vedran Corluka deserves huge credit, both for his stoic defensive performances, and the sheer number of head wounds he's accumulated. Other than a shocking last ten minutes or so against the Czechs (and they were clearly thrown by Modric's injury and the flares incident), we would be saying that Croatia had a nigh flawless group stages, even if there were question marks over their goalscoring ability after Game 1. Croatia are major contenders in this tournament, there's no two ways about it.
Spain
Spain are a curious case. On the one hand, they've looked very good for large swathes of this tournament. But on the other, they blew it against Croatia, looked inept up front against the Czechs and as a result face a run in of Italy, then Germany and then France, just to reach the final. I personally really like this Spain team. They have a rock solid defence (getting to that), arguably the best midfield in the tournament in Iniesta, Silva, Busquets and Fabregas and some genuine quality, if slightly inconsistent quality, in Morata and Nolito. And given the way that they swept aside Turkey, I'm tempted to put their struggles against the Czech Republic down to just not quite being warmed up yet, especially Morata.
And on another day, they would have beaten Croatia and topped the group, In fact they should have. Sergio Ramos shouldn't be taking their penalties when they have so much quality in their team, and if they'd scored that spot kick (admittedly one that shouldn't have been given and should have been retaken), they'd have won the match. And yes, they lost that match because of glaring defensive errors, but how often is David De Gea going to lose you a game of football rather than win it? I would say not very often. Do Spain have what it takes to win the tournament? Still tough to say, especially with their run in, but I'd back them against Italy for sure.
Turkey
Turkey will consider themselves unfortunate to crash out of the Euros on goal difference to Portugal and Northern Ireland, given that it didn't look like the Republic of Ireland would beat Italy to get the four points they needed to qualify. But Turkey only have themselves to blame. Yes, they turned up against the Czechs and won easily when they needed to, scoring a couple of really good goals in the process, and yes if Northern Ireland had taken the hammering at the hands of the Germans that Turkey might have expected then they would have gotten through, but if they'd wanted to go through, then they shouldn't have been so utterly woeful in their first two games.
Yes, they were utterly outclassed by two sides that are genuine tournament contenders in Croatia and Spain, but Turkey were so open defensively, so toothless up front and so utterly useless in midfield that it was no surprise that Croatia and Spain tore strips off of them. Ultimately, when sitting back and playing deep at 1-0 down against Spain would have given them a good chance of getting through on GD, Turkey gambled and got taken down.
Czech Republic
The Czechs deserve a lot of credit, much like Romania, for the way that they approached this tournament. Against Spain they sat deep, defended exceptionally and were ultimately unlucky to lose that game. But when they did lose, they went on to their next game and did the same thing. Yes, they were taken apart by Croatia but when they had some semblance of momentum after the flares and Croatia losing Modric, they seized it and stole a vital point, setting them up well to beat Turkey and qualify. And then they spectacularly blew it. Just like Romania, when it came to the crunch, the Czechs didn't have what it took.
Ultimately, the problem for the Czechs was that they weren't ever able to dominate a game. They sat deep against Spain mostly successfully, did the same against Croatia unsuccessfully before managing to steal the initiative when it was offered to them, but when they were playing against a team who were probably on their level, they were never able to take control of the game, and Turkey were always able to keep them at arms length. Overall, another team who couldn't cut the mustard.
GROUP E
Italy
Italy came into this tournament looking like a painfully average team who had a very, very good back three and goalkeeper, were extremely well organised and had arguably the best manager in the competition. Three games in and that's pretty much still the case. They were able to beat Belgium because they were extremely well set up to do so, with a very hard to penetrate side and helped out by lackluster Belgium defending and well, frankly Belgium being a bit naff (we'll get to that). But against Sweden in particular, but also against Ireland, against teams Italy were expected to beat, they faltered, and looked very average.
This is partly down to the fact that this Italy side is best set up to soak up pressure and counter attack, which is why they're probably better off playing Spain than someone like Iceland, but also partly down to the sheer lack of cutting edge in their midfield, although I am a fan of Pelle and Eder up front and they've both been very good so far. Moreover, the simple truth is that after topping the group after two games, they had nothing to play for against the Irish.
Belgium
Belgium came into this tournament with a lot of talented players and absolutely no idea how to use them. The best comparison I can make is to how England must look from the outside, complete befuddlement as to how a team with Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku can play so very, very poorly. Well simply, mismanagement. A back four that is disjointed and jumbled up, a midfield where Dembele simply had to start but didn't (and then promptly was injured for the tournament), and overall just a lack of quality in the key area that is the center of their midfield. Witsel and Nainggolan are just not top players. That and Wilmots is a fool.
Against Italy they played right into their hands, with almost zero cohesion between their front three and Marouanne Fellaini pulling the strings in midfield, not a man known for his creativity. Bizarrely, Ireland played right into their hands, but without Dembele in midfield, they went back to looking very inept against Sweden. Hungary should give them a real game in the last 16, but on paper Belgium should still somehow walk into the semi-finals, having stumbled their way into the easy half of the draw.
Republic of Ireland
On paper, you have to question how the Republic of Ireland made it out of their group. In reality, the answer is very simple. Sweden are a dreadful team that Ireland outplayed and should have beaten, and their game against Italy meant absolutely zero to their opposition. It may seem disingenuous to suggest that Ireland wouldn't have beaten an Italy side even slightly invested in the result of their game, but it's also probably accurate.
Overall though, I've been reasonably impressed with Ireland. They played very well against Sweden, they were easily the better side and deserved to beat Italy, and they had their moments in the Belgium game. However, tactically speaking they do not look set up to defend properly. Against Sweden and Italy they were allowed to have a solid share of the ball and used it well, but that tactic left them horribly exposed against a Belgium side who exploited their weaknesses ruthlessly. If they're going to make a game of it against the French, they cannot be so exposed at the back, or they will play into the hands of one of the most dangerous teams at the tournament. Hopefully they've learned their lessons.
Sweden
Honestly? Sweden were dreadful. They were absolutely dreadful. Against a good team in this group they'd have been hammered. As it was, they came up against an Italy side who didn't really know how to play against them tactically, a Belgium side that were tactically inept and an Ireland side that contained Ciaran Clark in central defence (seriously I think that's the only reason Ireland drew that game) and they still managed to come out with only one point and one goal. That's how bad Sweden were. Put them in Germany or Spain's group and they'd have taken a hammering.
We jest about Sweden just being a one man team, the same as Portugal and Wales but at least Portugal and Wales knew how to feed their best player. Zlatan FC failed to actually play to their only strength and get the ball to Zlatan in good areas of the pitch. Defensively they weren't terrible but they were nothing special and ultimately it was a lack of any semblance of creativity that sunk this Sweden side.
GROUP F
Hungary
Oh Group F. Oh Hungary. What a story. I am more than happy to admit I thought Hungary would be one of the worst contenders in this tournament, considering that over the course of their qualifying campaign they demonstrated that both Romania and Northern Ireland had the beating of them. But lo and behold, Hungary only went and won the group, earning them a winnable last 16 game with Belgium. One of Belgium, Wales, NI and Hungary will make the semis and frankly, why not Hungary? Five points ended up being enough to top this group, and the fact that that's the least of any says volumes about this group. But Hungary deserved to top it. They were terrific in their opening game against Austria, defensively solid and possessing power and strength on the counter attack, and they dominated the game against Iceland, deservedly equalising late on.
And the Portugal game. Wow. Up until that point Hungary had looked pretty good defensively, but everything just went crazy, as the incredible Hungarian force just kept coming forward. They arguably had the better chances to win the game as it stood. This is a well drilled, well set up Hungary outfit with smatterings of quality and a desire. More than anything else, they just look like a team who are going to do something. Let's hope that they can.
Iceland
If Hungary topping this group is a major shock (and it is) then the Iceland fairytale deserves it's place as a real underdog story. A nation of 330,000 people not only making it to a major tournament, but turning up at it too. They played very well against Portugal, managing to frustrate them. Then they defended very well against Iceland and were unlucky to only get a point there. And when they secured a 94th minute winner against Austria to take them through in second place, there was ecstasy.
I really rate this Iceland side, they have a touch of the Leicester City about them. They play with 28% possession, ride their luck a little bit and have the capacity to score when it counts, with real quality and a terrific, team, work ethic. Not bad for a team with a "small mentality" that apparently wouldn't go anywhere in this tournament. They are perfectly set up to cause England real problems, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go deep into this tournament.
Portugal
Like it or not, Portugal's whole tournament has been about Cristiano Ronaldo, a man who has to make everything all about him, both in the good and bad sense. It was he who stole the limelight after a poor display at a 1-1 draw with Iceland, by insulting their team. It was he who stole the limelight against Austria after a poor display for missing a dozen chances, wasting direct free kicks and hilariously missing a penalty and having a goal ruled out for offside.
But, it was also Ronaldo who stole the show in their final group game against Hungary, by scoring two sublime goals and answering his critics, even if he had time to throw a tantrum when they started losing. Like it or not, this Portugal team is built around Ronaldo and his ego and only he can determine how far they can go in this tournament. Croatia should run rings around them frankly, but with CR7 on the pitch, anything is possible. Austria
Austria's tournament really is a tale of woe. Bizarrely overhyped before the tournament started (and I'm allowed to say that since I said they were nothing special beforehand), and with the pressure of the label of "dark horses" hanging over them, they were well and truly taken apart by Hungary in what turned out to be an awful first game for the Austrians. And their tournament didn't improve from there, as it was more down to Ronaldo's awful finishing than anything else that they got a point from their second game and their own laughably bad finishing cost them dearly against Iceland.
This Austria side simply never looked good. They didn't look like doing anything in their opening two games, and when they finally looked like doing something against Iceland the results were dire. They were overhyped, under too much pressure to perform and simply capitulated. And it was very, very enjoyable to watch. In terms of players, even David Alaba was painfully poor at times, and claims that Arnautovic was on the same level of being able to carry teams through tournaments as Ronaldo or Zlatan proved so inaccurate it's shocking. Austria were terrible.
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