The Race For Europe
The race for top four has become increasingly a two-horse one. It would take a spectacular collapse from Arsenal to blow it from here, as whatever their result against Man City tomorrow, defeating Aston Villa next weekend would ensure that they finish in the top four (a result that's all but a given in this season, I mean we're sitting here saying Newcastle should thump Villa today).
So the battle to finish 4th is between the two Manchester clubs. Nobody would have given United a sniff of Champions League a few weeks ago, after Spurs battered them into submission and City walloped Chelsea. But now, they sit in a really good position, after City blew it against Southampton last weekend. United are four points behind City with a game in hand, albeit a very tough one against a West Ham side who will still be looking to finish ahead of United, and secure a top five finish. If United drop anymore points, then City will be safe in 4th through their superior goal difference; but if United beat Norwich, West Ham, and Bournemouth in their three remaining games (which is far from an impossible feat) and City fail to beat Arsenal, then City are out of the Champions League hunt, a result far more pressing now that they've been tepidly knocked out of the Champions League itself.
It seems crazy to think that we've ended up here, as United have been so poor this season. And if they win a trophy and come 4th, as is looking increasingly likely by the day, then it would be a terrific result for LVG, who has been slammed repeatedly this season. But then, they've secured a couple of good results against equally poor Man City and Arsenal sides, and unlike Man City and Arsenal, United have proven to be pretty good this season at grinding out results against inferior sides, as recent positive results against Watford, Palace, Villa and Everton will tell you, despite their defeat at West Brom.
As for City, they've done exactly what Liverpool have done, which is focused on Europe at the expense of the league and taken their eye well and truly off the ball. Which is fine when you're Liverpool, who are scrapping for 5th-7th, positions that will mean nothing to them regardless as any of them will probably secure Europa League football anyway and Liverpool's only route to the Champions League is through Europe. But for City, they were always outsiders in the Champions League, and their failure to take the threat of Southampton and Newcastle seriously has come back to haunt them, as now they might not even make next season's competition. Suddenly, tomorrow's game, which looked like it might be crucial for both sides, is looking far more crucial for City. But then, that ought to work in their favour. Arsenal have been tired for weeks now, but have managed to secure a top four spot, so it's unlikely that they'll put up much fight.
And as for the lower European places, there's not a lot of fighting to do to be honest. It's looking like United (or City) will finish 5th, unless West Ham manage to displace them. West Ham should finish 6th and secure the second automatic Europa League spot and then it just depends whether or not Palace win the FA Cup. If they do, they take the third EL spot, but if they don't, it goes to 7th, which will probably be Southampton in all honesty. We've really taken our foot off the gas in the Premier League now and with Klopp sure to rest a ton of players this weekend, and inevitably make changes ahead of the Europa League final, I can't see us securing the three wins required to pinch 7th.
But then, Klopp is a gambler, and I'd back us to get Champions League anyway. As I've said, finishing 5th would have been well within our grasp if we'd focused on the league and pushed hard. And if we do get UCL then the difference of a few points between 5th and 8th is largely irrelevant to be honest.
Relegation Dogfight
The race to stay up is looking increasingly tasty. Three straight defeats for Norwich mean that they're staring down the barrel and defeat today to United in the early KO could well be curtains - it would likely mean that they would need to beat both Everton and Watford to stand a chance of staying up. And I can't see Norwich pulling off that feat, although I could certainly see them nicking a point today. But I'm not sure that they haven't left themselves too much to do, with Sunderland and Newcastle both hitting form.
Newcastle go to Aston Villa at 3pm, a game that is simply a must-win for them.Sunderland below them have a very winnable game in hand in midweek, and Newcastle cannot afford to go into the final day behind their local rivals. Not only is Villa a must-win game in terms of points on the board - but it's Villa. Villa. Newcastle couldn't get an easier fixture if they tried. Much like Arsenal, if there's one game that you want to guarantee you success, whether that be staying up or securing 4th, it's Aston Villa. Three vital points for Newcastle would leave them almost home, but they'll be aware of the threat that Sunderland pose.
Sunderland know that they've got to be very careful to not let Newcastle get away from them. They face a Chelsea side today that seem rejuvenated, but maybe that was just to stop Spurs winning the league. Either way, Chelsea don't have much to play for, but will remain a serious threat to Sunderland, although I could certainly see the Black Cats snatching a draw. The big game for Sunderland is against hapless Everton in midweek. Win that and they're right on Newcastle's trail. Lose it and it's KO. Seven points from here is enough for Sunderland, and unlike Norwich, I could see them beating both Everton and Watford.
The Hard and Fast Section
- Six game ban for Dembele. Justice served.
- One more year for Jimmy Anderson. At least.
- Final day of the Saints season. Away at Gloucester.
- Huge game in the Championship. Boro v Brighton.
- And Andy Murray into the semis in Madrid.
No comments:
Post a Comment