5th February

Did somebody say rugby?

The Six Nations

The Six Nations is the traditional two months of the year where the whole of the UK and Ireland goes rugby manic for a while, before eventually grumbling because once again the Irish won it on points difference whilst the Irish drink a lot of Guinness to celebrate. The fact that the Irish victory usually falls on or around St Patrick's Day is usually just a nice salty rub in the wounds of English and Welsh supporters, with the Scottish generally just frustrated because once again they were turned over by everyone who wasn't Italy (and occasionally Italy). 

In general, there's a pattern that has formed over the last few years. 2013 was a mad year, and 2016 may well see a repeat of that, but in general, here's what to expect: 

• Everyone to beat Italy and Scotland
• Scotland and Italy to play for the wooden spoon. Scotland generally play better, and should win it, but often get beaten through a combination of bad luck, bad refereeing and an inability to finish chances. 
• All the pundits to claim that France are unpredictable and could shock everyone. In reality. France to be just a little bit rubbish. 
• England to put in a solid display 4 games out of 5, including a brilliant performance to beat either Wales or Ireland and then monumentally blow it in a crucial fixture that they probably deserved to win. 
• Wales and Ireland to go head-to-head for the Championship. Ireland to win it, probably beating Wales along the way, but only just.

This year though, things feel a bit different. Last year was of course the World Cup and that upset the apple cart somewhat. At least, it did on paper. Scotland were actually sensational, almost beat Australia and were unlucky not to make the semi-finals. Ireland spectacularly imploded against Argentina, England were the worst of the lot and couldn't even make it out of their group and the All-Blacks did such a number on France that the mental scars probably haven't gone away.

In reality, the World Cup actually doesn't change an awful lot for the fortunes of these sides. Italy were rubbish in it and will probably be rubbish here. France will have all the potential in the world but ultimately can't defend and won't finish higher than 4th. Wales were very, very good at times in the World Cup but I don't think a lot has changed for them. They'll probably beat England when it matters. England meanwhile, actually weren't that bad in the World Cup and but for some poor decision making and execution against the Welsh, actually should have pipped them to the quarter finals. All very standard stuff. As for Ireland, there were some exceptional circumstances at play against Argentina, not least how terrific Argentina were on the day and a glut of really bad injuries for Ireland. 

To be honest, Scotland are the only side who really look a bit game-changing after that World Cup. There's a lot of internal strife with England and Ireland are in the middle of a restructure, but neither of them will be much weaker than usual. It's Scotland who have the potential to really mix things up a bit. But I think England will beat them in the opening game and that will knock the stuffing out of them. But if Scotland can pull something off tomorrow, then it will be very interesting indeed. 

Ultimately, here's what I think will happen. I think Italy will be flattened like usual, I think France won't be in contention for the title, I think England will short of the title, I think that Scotland have the potential to put up more of a fight than usual but probably won't and I think that it'll be Wales v Ireland for the title. To put it simply: business as usual. 

This weekend's round of games are huge though. Scotland have a real opportunity to stamp their authority on this tournament and Wales or Ireland could set themselves up for a potential grand slam with victory against the other. If Wales can grab victory in Dublin then they arguably have the better home draw going forwards and would certainly fancy themselves for the title. One thing to take into account in England's favour going forward though: both Ireland and Wales have to go to Twickenham. But if I had to put my money on someone, I'd say Wales.

The Hard and Fast Section

• Fed Cup update: we won. Belgium next. 
• Rory McIlroy threw his ball in a lake. Amusing.
• Arsenal would rather not lower ticket prices. Oh boy. 
• Sturridge needs more training. And hit repeat. 
• Roberto Martinez dancing. Sometimes the football Gods treat us.